The 2025 ULI Australia Summit convened sector leaders in Sydney to assess capital markets conditions in an increasingly fractured global economy. Discussion centred on distinguishing meaningful signals from market noise, understanding the impacts of de-globalisation, and considering how Australia should respond to shifting macroeconomic pressures in the year ahead. 

The opening panel reinforced several core themes from the ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate®(ETRE) Asia Pacific 2026 report. Amanda Steele (ISPT) and Scott Maglestone (Brookfield) highlighted the continued strength of “digital sheds and all kinds of beds”, noting data centres, student housing, healthcare and co-living as standout sectors. Speakers reiterated that construction costs remain the industry’s foremost risk, a view echoed across the region. Briar Dowsett (QIC) and Tom Duncan (Sentinel Property Group) underscored adaptive reuse, ESG, and resilience as key drivers of value creation, while the panel reaffirmed Australia’s appeal among developed markets and acknowledged persistent industrial land shortages. 

Strategic Divergences and Market-Specific Insights 

Several points diverged from ETRE’s conclusions. The panel expressed stronger conviction in hotels and hospitality, citing constrained supply. Queensland—especially Brisbane—was viewed more favourably than ETRE’s rankings, while AI was positioned as an opportunity, not a risk. Duncan also conveyed a more optimistic outlook for Australia’s office markets than the report suggests. 

Keynote reflections from David Roberts (Macquarie Asset Management) emphasised the structural resilience of real estate. Despite rate shocks and a slowing global economy, valuations have already adjusted, and constrained construction pipelines are expected to bolster rental growth. Mark Fitzgerald (Affinius Capital) noted that modern, high-quality assets are positioned to outperform as feasibility pressures intensify. 

In a de-globalising world, industrial demand is expected to strengthen. Fitzgerald noted increased onshoring, defence spending, and re-engineered supply chains across the US and Europe, all feeding a long-term need for logistics and manufacturing space. Meanwhile, China’s expanding non-financial debt burden—now surpassing that of the United States—introduces growing uncertainty for Asia Pacific capital flows. 

Reimagining Capital: Land Constraints and the Rise of Private Credit 

The Reimagining Real Estate Capital panel expanded the debate. Sean McMahon (Charter Hall) stressed that land scarcity—not just construction costs—is now the binding constraint on Australian supply, with land values remaining unusually resilient. Fergal Harris (Global Investors Group) added a behavioural dimension, arguing that cultural resistance to decentralisation limits the effectiveness of land-release strategies. 

Finally, Catherine Farrell (Phoenix Property Investors) and Harris highlighted the evolution of private credit. Once centred on development finance, it is now increasingly driving refinancing activity, including non-bank-to-non-bank transactions—reinforcing the ETRE narrative and signalling deeper changes in capital market dynamics across the region.